Sealed forecast, recorded 2026-10-17
Its text stays sealed: it belongs to our control cohort, whose forecasts are never revealed.
Fingerprint · d87b58dc…
The gap
Three apologies.
Four weeks. One pattern.
- 24 Aug 2026
Target
Pulled a children’s Halloween costume critics said evoked minstrel caricature. Its shares closed down 3.8% the following day.
- 25 Aug 2026
Callaway
Its chief executive apologised for a co-branded ad that Callaway had approved. The partnership was over within a week.
- Sep 2026
Converse
Pulled an ad after a U.S. congressman asked, publicly, how it had cleared approval.
Each one passed review. Each one was read as an attack by a specific group of people. And each was foreseeable, to anyone who knew how that group reads the world.
That isn’t a creative problem. It’s a measurement problem. Brands track reach, sentiment and share of voice. Very few can say which constituencies their coverage reaches, how those constituencies are taking it, or how that has changed since last month.
37%
of senior executives say they know where negative sentiment about their brand is concentrated. Two years earlier, it was 56%.
WTW · Global Reputational Risk Readiness · 2026We didn’t forecast these incidents. Target, Callaway and Converse aren’t on our board. We cite them because they show the gap, not because we closed it.
Sources: Reuters/AP (Target, 24 Aug 2026); CBS News (Callaway, 25 & 28 Aug 2026); ABC News/CBC (Converse, 21–22 Sep 2026); WTW press release, 28 Apr 2026.
What we measure
Not what’s trending.
Who’s paying attention, and how they’re taking it.
The IndexStanding, as a number.
A 0–100 score for each brand, computed daily from the coverage it actually receives, across three dimensions: Cultural Capital, Velocity and Resilience. Every score is kept exactly as published. We never go back and revise the past.
ConstituenciesThe people behind the number.
38 named constituencies, groups defined by what they value, not by age or income: Counter-Establishment Critics, Boycott Coalitions and 36more. Each brand’s coverage is mapped to the constituencies it reaches, so you can see who is carrying your story, and who is turning on it.
The LedgerForecasts, on the record.
When we see something forming, we write it down as a yes-or-no forecast, with a deadline and a probability, fingerprint it, and publish it the same day. Then we grade it. Anyone can check any forecast against the public record, in one click.
Proof
Don’t take our word for it
Several vendors publish an accuracy percentage. Nobody publishes the predictions.
We do. Every forecast we make is on a public ledger: dated before the outcome, fingerprinted, and anchored daily in a public repository we can’t quietly edit. Open any forecast and press “Check this forecast.” Your own browser verifies it. Not our server. Yours.
Open the ledgerWho it’s for
Built for the people
who sign off.
Brand & insights
Know where you stand, and with whom.
Where your brand stands, with whom, and which way it’s moving, measured the same way, daily, against the brands you compete with.
Partnerships & talent
Before you sign.
See how the constituencies involved have received comparable moves before you sign the collaborator, athlete or ambassador. In a signed reading, within 72 hours.
Agencies
An independent second read.
A reading to put in front of a client, from a source that doesn’t sell media and doesn’t make the work.
Founding Pilot · Three places
We’re looking for three brands to prove this with.
There’s no fee. In return: a 30-minute recorded conversation about what was useful and what wasn’t, permission to cite the engagement (named or anonymised, your choice), and first right to a Founding Partner seat if it’s worth continuing.
Three places. When they’re taken, they’re taken. Your score never changes because you're a client, and no fee ever depends on it.The builder
Built by Chris Jackson.
A career in digital product management at the intersection of finance and media. A creative network spanning directors, writers, and producers shaping the next decade of American culture.
Tropos Index is being built as a sovereign operation: methodology-first, founder-led, accountable to the brands and institutions that will eventually license the Index as a benchmark.
Field Notes is where the method, and what it’s finding, is written up as it happens.
Read Field Notes— Chris Jackson, Founder