This page reads the forecast record directly. It is not a selection: there is no curated list, no exclusion flag and no administrative toggle that could remove a forecast from it. The underlying table rejects any edit to a prediction and rejects deletion outright, at the database, for every role including our own.
211 forecasts on record. 77 open, 134 past their window and awaiting a final grade, 0 final. A further 70 forecasts are listed below like every record but left out of every figure on this page, under our sample rules (see Methodology). Forecasts about the calibration cohort are published sealed — probability, pattern, window and a commitment hash, but not the brand, not the claim and not the verdict. That does not change when they are graded. The cohort is the one population no brand has ever been in a position to react to, and revealing our forecasts about it, even after the fact, teaches it what we watch and how we phrase it. We would be spending the only control arm we have to make a hundred records individually readable. Every other forecast on this page is published in full, from the day it is written.
Each claim is judged when its own window closes, and becomes final 90 days after it was made, when the calibration check is recorded — so a verdict can be seen before it is final. The next window closes 19 October 2026. The first grades become final 29 October 2026. Each grade publishes the day it resolves — whether or not we were right.
Nothing here is final yet, so this is a register of commitments rather than a record of results: 211 forecasts published before any outcome was known, each hashed when it was written and each hash anchored daily in a public repository. 134 of them have been judged at their own deadline already; those judgements are shown below and are not yet final.
2 further rows are held in the table and not shown here. In August a test harness exercised the grading code against this table and could not clean up after itself, because the table refuses deletion from every role including ours. The rows it left are about brands that do not exist — invented names, an invented claim, one of them graded as a hit. They are excluded by brand id, written into the source, on the single test of whether the subject is a real company. No forecast about a real brand can be removed by that mechanism, whatever it says and however it turned out.
1 — Open forecasts
Windows that have not yet closed, soonest first. The next closes 19 October 2026.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-19, a named trade publication (Sportico, SportsPro, or Footwear News) publishes a comparative analysis explicitly positioning On ahead of New Balance in the challenger-brand race against Nike and Adidas.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 15 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening71% within 90 days
By 2026-10-20, a named football trade publication (SportsPro, ESPN FC, or Goal.com) publishes a feature on the new soccer brand landscape that positions On — not New Balance — as the primary challenger to Nike and Adidas.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening71% within 90 days
By 2026-10-20, Variety, Deadline, Footwear News, or Business of Fashion publishes a feature positioning On as the primary challenger to Nike and Adidas, without naming New Balance in the same tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-21, Variety, Deadline, Business of Fashion, or Footwear News publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Holding as having displaced New Balance as the leading cultural challenger brand in athletic footwear.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-21, Variety, Deadline, Sportico or the Business of Fashion publishes a feature explicitly framing On Holding — powered by the Mbappé partnership — as having overtaken or materially threatened New Balance's position as the leading premium challenger brand in athletic lifestyle.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening78% within 90 days
By 2026-10-22, Variety, Deadline, or a major trade outlet (Business of Fashion, Footwear News, or Sports Business Journal) publishes a feature explicitly repositioning On as the dominant challenger brand in premium athletic, displacing New Balance from that narrative role.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-22, Variety, Footwear News or Business of Fashion publishes a feature explicitly repositioning On Running — not New Balance — as the primary cultural challenger to Nike and Adidas in the premium performance-lifestyle segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-23, Variety, Footwear News, or Sports Business Journal publishes a feature explicitly naming On Running — not New Balance — as the leading challenger brand to Nike and Adidas in both performance and cultural positioning.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-23, a named trade publication (Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or Forbes) publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as having overtaken New Balance as the leading premium athletic challenger brand.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-24, Variety, Deadline, or a major trade outlet (Hypebeast, Sole Collector, or Business of Fashion) publishes a feature naming On Running — citing the Mbappé deal — as the new dominant premium challenger brand in athletic footwear, without naming New Balance in that role.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening62% within 90 days
By 2026-10-24, Variety, Deadline, Footwear News, or Business of Fashion publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as having displaced New Balance as the leading 'anti-Nike challenger brand' in athletic footwear culture.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening62% within 90 days
By 2026-10-25, a named sports business publication (Sports Business Journal, Sportico or Business of Fashion) publishes a direct comparison piece positioning On Running as having surpassed New Balance as the leading challenger brand in global athletic footwear.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-25, Variety, Deadline, or The Hollywood Reporter publishes a feature explicitly framing On Running as having surpassed New Balance as the defining challenger brand in premium athletic footwear.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-26, Footwear News or Business of Fashion publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as the primary challenger to Nike in the performance-lifestyle segment, without naming New Balance in that role.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-27, Sneaker News, Highsnobiety, or Sole Collector publishes a feature explicitly repositioning On Running as the leading challenger brand in athletic footwear, displacing New Balance from that framing.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
By 2026-10-20, a named advocacy organization or publication issues a public statement or report specifically naming New Balance in connection with the Israeli-US boycott movement.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 2 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balanceboycott formation62% within 90 days
By 2026-10-21, a named advocacy organization or coalition publicly issues a formal boycott call specifically naming New Balance in a press release or open letter covered by Footwear News, WWD, or Business of Fashion.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-16, Highsnobiety, Hypebeast, or Sneaker News publishes a feature framing HOKA or On (via Kith) as the primary cultural successor to New Balance's performance-lifestyle positioning, without naming New Balance as a current leader in that space.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 12 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-11-17, Highsnobiety, Hypebeast, or Sneaker Freaker publishes a feature naming On Running or HOKA — but not New Balance — as the primary beneficiary of Nike's cultural retreat in the lifestyle running segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-11-18, Variety, Deadline, Vogue Business, or Hypebeast publishes a feature naming HOKA as the breakout sneaker brand of NYFW 2026 without substantive mention of New Balance.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-23, Foot Locker or a named fashion retail partner publicly expands HOKA's 'Flex Different' lifestyle campaign with a dedicated retail activation or editorial placement that a trade publication reports as encroaching on New Balance's fashion-consumer positioning.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-11-25, a major trade outlet (Hypebeast, Highsnobiety, or Sneaker News) publishes a gorpcore trend roundup that names Salomon and On as the dominant brands without including New Balance among the top recommendations.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-11-26, a major trade publication (Hypebeast, Highsnobiety, or Business of Fashion) publishes a feature naming Salomon as the leading gorpcore footwear brand, without including New Balance in the top tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-28, Hypebeast, Sole Collector, or Sneaker News publishes a seasonal trend recap that ranks Adidas ahead of New Balance in cultural collab momentum, citing the Bad Bunny and JENNIE drops as defining the period.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-29, Hypebeast, Sneaker News or Sole Collector publishes a ranked feature covering the most culturally relevant sneaker drops of Q4 2026 that places no New Balance release in the top five.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-28, Runner's World, Podium Runner, or Gear Patrol publishes a NYC Marathon brand roundup that names Hoka or On as the dominant performance-culture brand of the race cycle without substantive mention of New Balance.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-29, Variety, Gear Patrol, or Runner's World publishes a NYC Marathon brand round-up that names Hoka as the dominant footwear partner while omitting New Balance from its top-tier mentions.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening67% within 90 days
By 2026-11-29, Variety, Deadline, Runner's World, or a comparable outlet publishes a feature on the NYC Marathon cultural moment that names HOKA as the defining brand sponsor of the 2026 race cycle without substantive mention of New Balance.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-30, Footwear News, Runner's World, or a comparable running-trade outlet publishes a NYC Marathon cultural recap naming HOKA as the dominant brand presence with New Balance absent from the narrative.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening78% within 90 days
By 2026-10-28, Variety, Footwear News or Sports Business Journal publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as a direct cultural rival to New Balance in the performance-lifestyle segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 8 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-28, a major running or outdoor trade publication (Runner's World, Outside, Gear Junkie, or Sporting Goods Intelligence) publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as the primary challenger to New Balance's cultural and commercial leadership in premium performance streetwear.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-29, a named trade publication (Highsnobiety, Hypebeast or Gear Patrol) publishes a feature explicitly framing On Running as the leading cultural challenger to New Balance in the premium gorpcore or performance streetwear segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-01, a major fashion or lifestyle publication (Vogue, GQ, Harper's Bazaar or Who What Wear) publishes a feature positioning On Running's Zendaya collection as the leading premium-athleisure brand moment of the season, without mentioning New Balance.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-02, Vogue, GQ, or Who What Wear publishes a premium athleisure or Quiet Luxury seasonal roundup that features On Running's Zendaya collection and omits New Balance entirely.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-02, Sneaker News, Sole Collector, or Highsnobiety publishes a feature explicitly naming New Balance's 990-series as the primary beneficiary of Nike's Air Jordan Retro supply restrictions.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-03, Highsnobiety, Hypebeast, or GQ publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as the new cultural challenger to New Balance in performance-streetwear following the Mbappé signing.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-03, Footwear News, Sole Collector, or Highsnobiety publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as a direct cultural challenger to New Balance in the performance-lifestyle segment, citing the Mbappé signing as a turning point.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-31, Runner's World, iRunFar, or Road Trail Run publishes a comparative race-shoe review that ranks Nike Apex or Alphafly 4 ahead of the New Balance FuelCell SuperComp Elite in the elite marathon category.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 6 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening78% within 90 days
By 2026-11-01, Runner's World or Podium Runner publishes a 2026 marathon race-shoe roundup that ranks all three Nike models (Apex, Alphafly 4, Swooshfly) ahead of any New Balance FuelCell entry.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-01, Hypebeast, Sole Collector or Sneaker News publishes an article explicitly arguing that Nike's Jordan supply restriction poses a direct competitive threat to New Balance's position in the sneaker resale market.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-02, Hypebeast, Sneakers Cartel, or Droppedkick publishes an editorial explicitly positioning New Balance limited silhouettes as a primary beneficiary of Nike's Jordan Retro supply reduction.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-11-02, a named running trade publication (Runner's World, iRunFar, or Road Trail Run) publishes a seasonal roundup that positions Hoka as the leading brand in trail and urban marathon culture without mentioning New Balance in the same tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-03, Sneaker News, Sole Collector, or Highsnobiety publishes a feature explicitly framing Nike's Jordan supply restriction as a catalyst that draws resale-culture attention away from New Balance heritage runners.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancetalent spokesperson risk72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-09, a named sneaker trade publication (Sole Collector, Sneaker News, or Kicks on Fire) publishes a dedicated critical analysis of the Cooper Flagg logo design, framing it as a liability for New Balance's basketball credibility.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-14, a named trade publication (Hypebeast, Sneaker News or Highsnobiety) publishes a feature positioning On as the primary challenger in the lifestyle-performance crossover segment without naming New Balance among the top competitors.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-11-15, Runners World, Outside or a comparable specialist running publication publishes a feature story naming the Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3 the definitive elite race shoe of 2026, with no New Balance model ranked in the top tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
By 2026-11-30, a named sneaker trade publication (Hypebeast, Sole Collector, or Sneaker News) publishes an editorial or op-ed questioning whether New Balance's collaboration volume is eroding its authenticity positioning.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
The same detection produced 2 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balanceauthenticity drift58% within 90 days
By 2026-12-05, a named sneaker or trade press publication (Sneaker News, Sole Collector or Hypebeast) publishes a feature explicitly framing the repeated Miu Miu collaborations as evidence that New Balance has prioritised luxury fashion positioning over its athletic and heritage identity.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balanceconstituency migration risk62% within 90 days
By 2026-12-04, a major South Korean fashion retailer (Musinsa, Lotte or Shinsegae) publicly announces a dedicated Alo or Vuori shop-in-shop or expanded floor allocation at the direct expense of a competing lifestyle sneaker or athleisure brand.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening62% within 90 days
By 2026-12-07, a national sports or trade outlet (ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Footwear News or Sportico) publishes a feature explicitly benchmarking competing brands' women's athlete investment against Nike's Caitlin Clark signature program.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
New Balanceconstituency migration risk58% within 90 days
By 2026-12-07, Lululemon publicly announces a new footwear initiative or cross-category product line under Maggie Gauger's product leadership mandate, as reported by Footwear News, Glossy or Business of Fashion.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline. On these rows the claim is sealed, so the state column reports only whether a judgement has been recorded — never which way it went, at any point in the record’s life.
2 — Window closed, not yet final
The deadline has passed and the claim has been judged against it. The record becomes final 90 days after it was made, when the calibration check is recorded in the same write — that is the one write the record's own immutability allows, so it is made last and it is made once.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 daysWritten outside our scheduled daily run, so it is published here but not counted in our accuracy score.
By 2026-10-08, a named financial or trade publication (Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or the Wall Street Journal) publishes a feature explicitly positioning New Balance as the primary beneficiary of Nike's brand credibility decline following the S&P 100 removal.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-07.
Made
2026-09-08
Window
2026-09-08 → 2026-10-08
Final on
2026-12-07
None of the 80 ingested articles is a feature from Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or the Wall Street Journal explicitly positioning New Balance as the primary beneficiary of Nike's brand credibility decline following an S&P 100 removal. The closest item is a BoF article (2026-10-06) titled 'Where Can Nike Find Its Next Halo?' which concerns Nike's challenges, but its subject is Nike's own strategy, not a feature naming New Balance as the primary beneficiary of Nike's credibility decline tied to S&P 100 removal.
The same detection produced 6 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-09, Highsnobiety, Hypebeast, or Sneaker News publishes a feature explicitly positioning New Balance's Made in UK or Made in USA craft narrative as a direct counterpoint to Nike's licensed-IP collab volume.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-08.
Made
2026-09-09
Window
2026-09-09 → 2026-10-09
Final on
2026-12-08
None of the 80 ingested articles from Highsnobiety, Hypebeast, or Sneaker News explicitly positions New Balance's Made in UK or Made in USA craft narrative as a direct counterpoint to Nike's licensed-IP collab volume. The Highsnobiety article (2026-10-04) covers the Miu Miu RC150 collab, Sneaker News articles cover product releases (Allerdale 'Moorland Textures', 983, 950, 1890, Cooper Flagg logo), and Hypebeast's entry (2026-10-09) is about Cooper Flagg's logo — none frame New Balance's domestic manufacturing as a counterpoint to Nike's collab strategy.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-09, a named trade publication (WWD, Footwear News, or Business of Fashion) publishes a feature positioning New Balance as the primary beneficiary of simultaneous Lululemon and Nike brand instability.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-08.
Made
2026-09-09
Window
2026-09-09 → 2026-10-09
Final on
2026-12-08
No evidence in the retrieved articles shows WWD, Footwear News, or Business of Fashion publishing a feature explicitly positioning New Balance as the primary beneficiary of simultaneous Lululemon and Nike brand instability. The Motley Fool article (2026-09-17) discusses Nike and Lululemon hitting multi-year lows but does not feature New Balance as the primary beneficiary, and the BoF article (2026-10-06) is about Nike's halo, not about New Balance benefiting from both brands' instability simultaneously.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-10, Footwear News or Business of Fashion publishes a feature explicitly positioning New Balance as a primary beneficiary of Lululemon's North American sales collapse.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-09.
Made
2026-09-10
Window
2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10
Final on
2026-12-09
None of the 80 ingested articles from Footwear News or Business of Fashion explicitly position New Balance as a primary beneficiary of a Lululemon North American sales collapse. The one BoF article in the evidence (2026-10-06, 'Where Can Nike Find Its Next Halo?') focuses on Nike, not Lululemon or New Balance, and the Ganni x Lululemon collaboration piece (2026-10-08, Marie Claire) is unrelated to any sales collapse narrative.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening78% within 90 days
By 2026-10-16, Footwear News, Hypebeast, or Sneaker News publishes a feature explicitly positioning New Balance as the primary beneficiary of Nike's cultural and market-share decline.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-15.
Made
2026-09-16
Window
2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
Final on
2026-12-15
None of the 80 ingested articles from Footwear News, Hypebeast, or Sneaker News explicitly positions New Balance as the 'primary beneficiary' of Nike's cultural and market-share decline. The Hypebeast articles present are product/collaboration features (Cooper Flagg logo, 990v7 closer looks, JJJJound collab), and the Sneaker News articles are release announcements. No feature article framing New Balance as Nike's primary beneficiary appears in the evidence.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-17, a named retail analyst or trade publication (Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or WWD) publishes a feature explicitly positioning New Balance as the primary cultural beneficiary of Nike's market-share decline.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Unsettled — final on 2026-12-16.
Made
2026-09-17
Window
2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
Final on
2026-12-16
The Business of Fashion published an article on 2026-10-06 titled 'Where Can Nike Find Its Next Halo?' which concerns Nike's struggles, and there is general coverage of New Balance's cultural momentum, but no evidence in the retrieved articles shows a feature from Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or WWD explicitly positioning New Balance as the *primary cultural beneficiary* of Nike's market-share decline. The BoF article title suggests it is about Nike's search for a halo product, not a piece explicitly naming New Balance as the primary beneficiary, and the actual content is not shown in the evidence.
2026-10-06 Where Can Nike Find Its Next Halo? | BoF
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-12, Runner's World, Footwear News, or Sports Business Journal publishes a feature explicitly framing HOKA as having surpassed New Balance as the leading lifestyle-performance crossover brand among serious runners.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-11.
Made
2026-09-12
Window
2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Final on
2026-12-11
None of the 80 evidence articles show Runner's World, Footwear News, or Sports Business Journal publishing a feature explicitly framing HOKA as having surpassed New Balance as the leading lifestyle-performance crossover brand among serious runners. The evidence covers the full prediction window and contains no such framing from any of the three named outlets.
The same detection produced 6 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-13, Strava publicly confirms an expanded or exclusivity-structured partnership with HOKA that explicitly covers the lifestyle running segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Unsettled — final on 2026-12-12.
Made
2026-09-13
Window
2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13
Final on
2026-12-12
One article from 2026-09-29 (GetMarketingBrief: 'Hoka's NYC Marathon Run-Up: 6 Creators, DOOH & Strava') suggests a Hoka-Strava collaboration around the NYC Marathon, but the evidence does not confirm that Strava publicly confirmed an 'expanded or exclusivity-structured partnership' explicitly covering the 'lifestyle running segment' as the prediction specifies. The article title alone is insufficient to determine whether the partnership met the specific structural and segment criteria stated.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-13, Foot Locker publicly announces an expanded HOKA lifestyle product campaign or dedicated HOKA lifestyle shop-in-shop in a press release or investor communication.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-12.
Made
2026-09-13
Window
2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13
Final on
2026-12-12
None of the 80 evidence articles describe Foot Locker publicly announcing an expanded HOKA lifestyle product campaign or a dedicated HOKA lifestyle shop-in-shop in any press release or investor communication. HOKA-related articles mention a NYC Marathon retail/creator campaign and a Korean distributor change, but no Foot Locker partnership or shop-in-shop announcement.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-10-14, Runner's World, iRunFar or FloTrack publishes a feature or buyer's guide that explicitly names HOKA as the leading crossover performance-lifestyle brand, without including New Balance in the same category tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-13.
Made
2026-09-14
Window
2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14
Final on
2026-12-13
None of the 80 ingested articles is from Runner's World, iRunFar, or FloTrack, and none explicitly names HOKA as the leading crossover performance-lifestyle brand while excluding New Balance from the same category tier. The closest relevant article is a mlive.com comparison piece (HOKA Clifton 10 vs. New Balance 1080v15) and a bestshoesproducts.com piece on lifestyle New Balance shoes, neither of which fits the prediction's specific criteria.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening62% within 90 days
By 2026-10-14, a named running-industry trade publication (Running USA, FloTrack, or Runner's World) publishes a feature crediting HOKA's Strava Run Your City campaign as a model for run-community brand activation, without mentioning New Balance's 5th Avenue Mile in the same context.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-13.
Made
2026-09-14
Window
2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14
Final on
2026-12-13
None of the 80 ingested articles is from Running USA, FloTrack, or Runner's World, and none mentions HOKA's 'Strava Run Your City' campaign as a model for run-community brand activation. The evidence covers the full prediction window through 2026-10-14 with no such feature appearing.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-16, a major trade publication (Hypebeast, Highsnobiety, or Business of Fashion) publishes a comparative feature positioning On Running as the leading premium lifestyle sneaker challenger brand, without naming New Balance among the top competitors in that tier.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-15.
Made
2026-09-16
Window
2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
Final on
2026-12-15
None of the evidence shows Hypebeast, Highsnobiety, or Business of Fashion publishing a comparative feature positioning On Running as the leading premium lifestyle sneaker challenger brand without naming New Balance among top competitors. The Highsnobiety and Hypebeast articles in the evidence are about New Balance products, and the only On Running reference is a brief news item about Mbappé's signing, not a comparative brand-positioning feature.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-13, a major trade publication (Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or Forbes) publishes a feature explicitly repositioning On as the leading challenger brand in performance-lifestyle footwear, displacing New Balance in the narrative.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-12.
Made
2026-09-13
Window
2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13
Final on
2026-12-12
None of the 80 ingested articles is a feature from Footwear News, Business of Fashion, or Forbes explicitly repositioning On as the leading challenger brand in performance-lifestyle footwear and displacing New Balance in that narrative. The evidence is heavily New Balance-focused, and the one On-related article (Fashion Audit brand audit, 2026-10-12) is not from the named publications and does not make the claimed repositioning argument.
The same detection produced 4 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-14, Variety, Deadline, Business of Fashion or a comparable trade outlet publishes a feature explicitly positioning On Running as the leading challenger to Nike in the premium athletic space, naming New Balance as secondary or omitting it from the challenger tier entirely.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-13.
Made
2026-09-14
Window
2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14
Final on
2026-12-13
None of the 80 ingested articles from the relevant period is a feature in Variety, Deadline, Business of Fashion, or a comparable trade outlet that explicitly positions On Running as the leading challenger to Nike in the premium athletic space while naming New Balance as secondary or omitting it from the challenger tier. The one BoF article listed ('Where Can Nike Find Its Next Halo?', 2026-10-06) does not appear to make that specific framing, and no other evidence article matches the prediction's precise criteria.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening71% within 90 days
By 2026-10-16, Believe in the Run or Runner's World publishes a comparative review placing On's Cloudsurfer 3 above New Balance's current flagship trainer on the basis of midsole technology.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-15.
Made
2026-09-16
Window
2026-09-16 → 2026-10-16
Final on
2026-12-15
None of the 80 ingested articles show Believe in the Run or Runner's World publishing a comparative review placing the On Cloudsurfer 3 above New Balance's flagship trainer on the basis of midsole technology. The evidence covers the full prediction window through 2026-10-16 and includes multiple running-shoe review articles, none of which match the specific claim.
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening65% within 90 days
By 2026-10-17, Footwear News, Runner's World, or Outside publishes a running-shoe category roundup that ranks an On Running model above the top-listed New Balance performance shoe in the daily-trainer segment.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Unsettled — final on 2026-12-16.
Made
2026-09-17
Window
2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
Final on
2026-12-16
An Outside article titled 'Best Road Running Shoes (Fall 2026): Tested and Reviewed' was published on 2026-10-16, which matches the publication, timeframe, and category type specified in the prediction. However, the evidence only shows the headline — the actual rankings within the article (specifically whether an On Running model ranked above a New Balance performance shoe in the daily-trainer segment) cannot be determined from the headline alone.
2026-10-16 Best Road Running Shoes (Fall 2026): Tested and Reviewed
New Balanceregulatory legal risk72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-17, a named consumer-interest or running-enthusiast publication (such as Runner's World, Canadian Running, or iRunFar) publishes an editorial piece explicitly criticizing New Balance's trademark claim against Decathlon as overreaching.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-16.
Made
2026-09-17
Window
2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
Final on
2026-12-16
None of the 80 evidence articles is an editorial piece from a consumer-interest or running-enthusiast publication (Runner's World, Canadian Running, iRunFar, or similar) explicitly criticizing New Balance's trademark claim against Decathlon as overreaching. The only articles touching the trademark dispute are a retail trade site (RetailDetail EU, 2026-09-21) and an IP law firm blog (Murgitroyd, 2026-09-22), neither of which qualifies as the named type of publication nor frames the claim as overreaching.
The same detection produced 2 forecasts. Only the first was delivered to the brand; the rest were suppressed at delivery so the brand was not alerted twice about one event. Each is a distinct claim with its own window, its own hash and its own grade, and each is counted separately everywhere on this page.
New Balanceregulatory legal risk72% within 90 days
By 2026-10-18, Decathlon publicly files a formal legal response or counterclaim in the Massachusetts federal court proceeding that receives coverage in Footwear News, Bloomberg Law, or The Hollywood Reporter's legal desk.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Unsettled — final on 2026-12-17.
Made
2026-09-18
Window
2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18
Final on
2026-12-17
The evidence shows a Law360 article from 2026-10-07 titled 'New Balance Athletics, Inc. v. Decathlon America LLC et al,' confirming the case exists in federal court, and a 2026-09-21 RetailDetail EU article about New Balance taking Decathlon to court. However, the prediction specifically requires coverage of Decathlon's formal legal response or counterclaim in Footwear News, Bloomberg Law, or The Hollywood Reporter's legal desk — none of the listed articles are from those outlets, and none describe a Decathlon filing or response. The Hypebeast/Footwear News link from 2026-10-16 is too vague to confirm coverage of this specific event.
2026-10-07 New Balance Athletics, Inc. v. Decathlon America LLC et al
2026-09-21 New Balance takes Decathlon to court over logo: K or N? - RetailDetail EU
New Balancecompetitive cultural opening68% within 90 days
By 2026-10-18, Footwear News, Highsnobiety, or Hypebeast publishes a feature explicitly positioning HOKA or On as the leading fashion-credible performance sneaker brand for fall 2026, without naming New Balance as a peer.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline.
Window verdict: Did not materialise — final on 2026-12-17.
Made
2026-09-18
Window
2026-09-18 → 2026-10-18
Final on
2026-12-17
None of the ingested articles from Footwear News, Highsnobiety, or Hypebeast explicitly position HOKA or On as the leading fashion-credible performance sneaker brand for fall 2026 without naming New Balance as a peer. The Highsnobiety and Hypebeast articles in the evidence period are overwhelmingly focused on New Balance itself (990v7, 990v3, Numeric 993, etc.), and no feature article crowning HOKA or On in that specific framing appears.
Probability covers a fixed 90-day period, the same for every forecast, so they can be compared. The claim itself is judged at its own deadline. On these rows the claim is sealed, so the state column reports only whether a judgement has been recorded — never which way it went, at any point in the record’s life.
3 — Final
Forecasts whose terminal write has happened: the window verdict promoted, the calibration verdict recorded, the record frozen. Most recent first. Named forecasts are published in full, whichever way they went; sealed forecasts stay sealed and count only toward the curve below.
No record is final yet. The first becomes final 29 October 2026, 90 days after it was written. Grades publish the day they resolve, whether or not we were right.
4 — Calibration
Stated probability against observed frequency. When we said 70%, how often did it happen? Two curves, over two populations, reported separately and never combined.
Two verdicts are recorded for every graded forecast and they answer different questions. The window verdict says whether the predicted thing happened inside the graded window; the calibration verdict says whether it happened inside the 90 days the probability referred to. The grades above show the window verdict, because that is the commitment we made. Both curves below are built from the calibration verdict, because that is the question the probability answered — scoring a 90-day probability against a 30-day window would show over-confidence that is an artefact of the question rather than a property of the forecaster.
All graded forecasts
Nothing is excluded. Forecasts the brand acted on, forecasts from manual runs during development, and forecasts we published under the brand's own name all count here. This is the anti-cherry-picking curve: its purpose is that there is no version of our record with the inconvenient forecasts taken out.
Nothing is final yet. The first record becomes final 29 October 2026, 90 days after it was written, and the calibration verdict this curve reads is written then. Grades publish the day they resolve, whether or not we were right.
Unexposed cohort
The clean arm. Sealed records only, minus the manual-run records listed below and minus any forecast the brand acted on. Nobody was in a position to react to these, so the outcome is the world's and not ours. This is the curve to price on.
Nothing is final yet. The first record becomes final 29 October 2026, 90 days after it was written, and the calibration verdict this curve reads is written then. Grades publish the day they resolve, whether or not we were right.
Each forecast event counts once. Before 9 October 2026, repeat detections of the same event were recorded separately; they are grouped here so one event is one point.
The difference between these curves is what publication does to a forecast.
Checkability belongs to individual records, not to either curve: every named forecast above can be hashed against its published text, and no sealed one can, whichever curve it lands in.
Neither curve has a graded record yet, so there is no difference to read. The first record becomes final 29 October 2026; the curve reads the calibration verdict written in that same terminal write, so nothing lands here before then.
Held out of the unexposed-cohort curve
0 excluded: the brand acted on the forecast. Acting on a forecast changes the outcome it predicted, so the record measures our influence rather than our accuracy. Brands we have not asked are never counted as having done nothing.
6 excluded: not written by our scheduled daily run. We work out which run produced each record by matching the time it was written against the times each run started and finished; these were started by hand while we were building the system, so they were not produced under the conditions this curve claims to measure. The exclusion is permanent and applies from the record’s creation, not from its grading — 0 of them have reached a grade so far. All of them remain published above.
0 excluded: published by us under the brand’s own name. A forecast on this page, unauthenticated, naming the brand and stating the claim, is one the brand could have read and acted on — so it cannot sit in a cohort described as unexposed. Expected to be zero: cohort forecasts are never published named. Anything other than zero here is a defect in this page, not a nuance.
0 graded, but the evidence could not settle it either way (0 because the claim named only third parties we do not index, 0 because the claim references something we do not observe). Counting these as misses would punish us for our own blind spots; dropping them silently would flatter us.
0 graded, but with no 90-day calibration verdict recorded, so there is nothing for this curve to read. Neither dropped nor counted as a miss.
0 graded where the window and calibration verdicts disagree — the thing happened, but not on both clocks. Both answers are correct; they are answers to different questions.
1 records we cannot match to any run of the system at all. Not being able to find the run is not evidence that someone wrote it by hand, so these are reported as what they are rather than filed under the line above.
What the unexposed-cohort curve cannot yet tell you
Most records to date are one brand in one category. A reliability curve over a single population is a hit rate wearing a curve’s clothing: it can say whether our stated probabilities held for that brand, and nothing about whether they generalise. No probability bucket is populated yet. 7 forecast events in this curve (27 records) predate the fix that made the elicited horizon and the graded window agree; their probabilities were stated over a fixed 90 days regardless of the window stored against them, and the calibration verdict is what the curve reads for exactly that reason.
5 — How to check us
What each kind of row lets you check, and what it does not, without trusting anything we say.
How to verify a forecast
Every forecast is fingerprinted when it is written — a SHA-256 digest over the eight fields frozen at that moment. The fingerprints are published daily in the public cljackson1279/tropos-ledger repository, each file carrying the digest of the previous day’s. Anyone can recompute a named forecast’s fingerprint from its published text, under the rule below, and confirm it matches the one we published — which is what shows the forecast has not changed since the day it was made.
Fingerprints are shown shortened on the rows above; open one to see all 64 characters, copy it, or press Check this forecast to have your own browser do the whole check — it fetches the published digest directly from GitHub and, on a named forecast, recomputes the fingerprint from the text on this page. The request goes from your machine to the public repository and does not pass through us, which is the only version of this check worth offering. A sealed forecast publishes its fingerprint in full like every other record — you can confirm it has not changed, and you cannot read what it says.
What the fingerprint proves
Each row above carries a hash over the eight fields frozen when the forecast was written. Two different things follow from it, and they are not the same strength of claim.
On a sealed row, the hash proves the record existed, unchanged. It was written on the date shown, with the contents it has now, and neither the claim nor the probability has moved since — because the hash is taken over both, and the hash is published daily to a repository whose files chain to each other and are timestamped by a third party. What it does not prove is what the claim said. That stays sealed.
The plaintext is verifiable on named rows only. Those rows carry the brand and the claim in full, so you can hash them yourself under the rule below and compare. If your hash does not match ours, the forecast was changed. This is the check that closes, end to end, and it is available on every forecast on this page except the calibration cohort.
The sealed cohort exists so the calibration curve has an arm no brand could react to. That is the whole of its purpose. Those forecasts are never delivered to the brand and never published in full, not even after grading, so nothing anyone did in response can have moved their outcomes. The cost is that you cannot read them; the return is the one curve on this page that is not contaminated by having been published. We think that is the right trade and we would rather state it than have you discover it.
SHA-256, lowercase hex, over UTF-8 bytes of a JSON object with exactly these
eight keys in exactly this order and no whitespace anywhere:
{"id":"<uuid>","brand_id":"<uuid|null>","pattern_category":"<slug>",
"probability":<three decimal places, unquoted>,
"forecast_window_start":"<YYYY-MM-DD>","forecast_window_end":"<YYYY-MM-DD>",
"predicted_outcome":"<JSON-escaped text>",
"created_at":"<YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SS.ffffffZ>"}
probability carries exactly three fractional digits (the column is
numeric(4,3)); created_at is normalised to UTC with microsecond precision and
a Z suffix. Strings are escaped by the JSON specification. brand_id is the
unquoted literal null when the brand row has been deleted.
Worked example
New Balance is published named, so its plaintext is available now. This is the exact byte string hashed — no whitespace, no trailing newline:
{"id":"caa0e514-e6e5-492b-85ac-a63851b1f52c","brand_id":"4fd09d78-d76d-4721-8c64-905c53f76bb5","pattern_category":"competitive_cultural_opening","probability":0.720,"forecast_window_start":"2026-10-16","forecast_window_end":"2026-11-15","predicted_outcome":"By 2026-11-15, Runners World, Outside or a comparable specialist running publication publishes a feature story naming the Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3 the definitive elite race shoe of 2026, with no New Balance model ranked in the top tier.","created_at":"2026-10-16T09:02:07.194863Z"}
Piped through SHA-256 it gives the hash shown against that record:
Every commitment hash is written daily to a public repository, each file carrying the SHA-256 of the previous day’s file. Altering a historical digest invalidates every digest after it, and each file’s commit timestamp is recorded by a third party we do not control.
Any day: /api/public/ledger/YYYY-MM-DD — no authentication, stable permalinks.
External anchoring begins with the first digest committed to that repository, 11 September 2026. Hashes for records created before then are attested by the database’s immutability trigger — which is our own infrastructure — and not by external anchoring; the first published digest carries the whole backlog, so they are all anchored from that date forward even though they were written earlier. The chain itself is defined from 8 September 2026, and the three digests between those dates are recomputable but were never committed, so nothing outside our own systems timestamps them.
There is no reveal schedule
A cohort forecast stays sealed. There is no date on which it opens, no grade that unseals it and no administrative route out of the lane — the mode is derived from cohort membership alone, so nothing that happens to a record can change what is published about it. (Decision-linked records are different and say so in their own lane: a brand asked us about a decision before making it public, and that record opens when the decision is public or the record is graded, whichever comes first.) An earlier version of this page revealed sealed records once they were graded. We removed that, because a cohort that is handed our last ninety days of forecasts about itself is no longer a population that could not react to them, and the arm decays one defensible reveal at a time. Exposure runs one way; the seal is the only part of this we cannot undo later.